Rafael Jodar Prediction: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• The first player born in 2006 or after to reach the semifinals of a Masters 1000. This is not a formula, it's a line in the books, and it was written on Tuesday night by a 19-year-old boy.

• Rafael Jodar is 11th in the live rankings, and he's playing his fourth semifinal of the season.

• His fortnight in Montreal: Corentin Moutet, Lorenzo Musetti, Jiri Lehecka, Arthur Fils. 4 matches, 4 wins, and not a single set lost since the first round.

• Against Fils, there's even a detail that's dizzying: it's the second time in 15 days that he beats him, and exactly with the same score, 7-6 6-3. In Washington at the end of July, and then here on Tuesday. The same player, the same plan, the same result.

• The engine is the return. This fortnight, he converted 86% of his break points against Moutet, more than one out of two against Musetti and Lehecka. No one can hold serve comfortably against him right now.

• And that's where the conditions come into play. The Montreal courts are the slowest of the season, we're playing in the middle of the night in cold air, and Brandon Nakashima lives off his serve. We're taking away his main weapon at the worst moment.

• My reservations, and the first one is not the one you think: the more loaded player of the two is Jodar. 9 matches in 16 days, a final in Washington in his legs, and a serve that remains his weak point, with three aces on Tuesday night.

• On the other hand, Nakashima has more games in his legs in this tournament, including a 37-game war against Rinderknech, but he remains a serious opponent: 17 wins for 8 losses on hard courts this season.

• At 1.44 it may seem short but I'm going for it without hesitation. This boy has been answering the question of fatigue every 2 days for the last 15 days, and he didn't come to Montreal to stop in the semifinals.