Tennis Prediction Lloyd Harris vs Hubert Hurkacz: Chengdu

Chengdu 🇨🇳

• Lloyd Harris has reached the Chengdu draw through the back door, but his stats in qualifying are monstrous: 18 aces on Wednesday, 95% of points won behind his 1st serve, and no break points conceded.

• The South African is 29 years old, he was ranked 31st in the world before a wrist operation, and this season he has come a long way with 33 wins for 13 losses and 3 Challenger titles. At the US Open, he went through qualifying and one round before losing to Tsitsipas in 4 sets.

• He knows Chengdu: Monfils beaten here in 2018 when he was 129th, semi-final in 2019 as a lucky loser, and last year a loss in the qualifying final against Tabilo, who then won the tournament.

• On the other side, Aleksandar Kovacevic has the best hunting ground of the summer: Hurkacz at Indian Wells, Khachanov at Cincinnati, Tsitsipas at Winston-Salem.

• But the American hasn't played since August 31, he's at 21 wins for 29 losses this season, 2 wins for 6 losses on the Chinese circuit, and he hardly returns (at all): his opponents win 79% of the points behind their 1st serve against him.

• Against Lloyd Harris' serve this week, this could mean a lot of hopeless games.

• On the other hand, Hubert Hurkacz leads 4-0 against Alexander Shevchenko, all on hard courts, and the Kazakh has never found the key, even in the 2 matches that went to a 3rd set.

• China suits him well: 10 wins for 2 losses on the circuit, with the Shanghai Masters 1000 in 2023. And he's coming off a Challenger title in Cancun at the end of August, then a close 4-set loss to Shelton at the US Open, 7-6 7-5 in the last two.

• The season's hard court stats are quite telling.

🇿🇦 Lloyd Harris

• 7.6 aces per match
• 1.5 double faults per match
• 68% of points lost behind opponent's 1st serve

🇺🇸 Aleksandar Kovacevic

• 12.1 aces per match
• 3.7 double faults per match
• 79% of points lost behind opponent's 1st serve

🇵🇱 Hubert Hurkacz

• 13.6 aces per match
• 78% of points won behind his 1st serve
• 73% of points lost behind opponent's 1st serve

🇰🇿 Alexander Shevchenko

• 7.3 aces per match
• 72% of points won behind his 1st serve
• 76% of points lost behind opponent's 1st serve

• Kovacevic serves harder than Harris, but he doesn't return well and he gives 3.7 double faults per match. In this match, the only one of the two who can break, is the South African.

• Hurkacz serves and returns better, and he leads 4-0 in the H2H. Shevchenko has to win 2 sets against a player who has only let him have 2 in 4 matches, which could be difficult.

• I see Harris holding his serve until the end and making the difference on one or two break points, and Hurkacz going through in 2 or 3 sets.