Tennis Prediction Marcos Giron vs Henrique Rocha: Cincinnati

🇺🇸 Cincinnati

• An 81st-ranked player competing in qualies, that tells you how stacked the Cincinnati draw is this year.

• It also tells you that in the first qualifying round, there is a level gap that has no business being there.

• Facing Marcos Giron is Henrique Rocha, world #125, a player who hasn't won a single match since June 10th. Six straight losses. His last win was on the clay of a Challenger, over two months ago.

• And hard courts are not his thing: 2 wins for 5 losses on hard this season, compared to 22 wins for 11 losses on clay. The Portuguese's ranking was built elsewhere, and it shows in every outing.

• The American, on the other hand, knows exactly what he's doing on a hard court. Eight days ago, he took a set off Hubert Hurkacz in Montreal. This summer, he beat Corentin Moutet at Wimbledon and pushed Alexander Zverev to three sets. This is a different job.

• My reservations, and I'll group them. Giron is not on fire this season: 23 wins for 22 losses, and a negative record as soon as he plays the main tour.

• He's 33, he hasn't played in 8 days, and Cincinnati has never suited him. At under 1.50, I'm not selling you any value either, the price is too short for that but I simply see him winning comfortably.

• But we're not asking this man to be at the peak of his game. We're asking him to be better than a player who hasn't won in two months, on the surface where he's weakest. That, he can do.