Tennis Prediction Taylor Fritz vs Rafael Jodar: Washington

🇺🇸 Washington

• This final is much tighter than the winner's price suggests. Taylor Fritz is world #10 and playing at home, but Rafael Jodar is coming off the toughest week of the two, and on hard courts these two are on the same level.

• When two players are even, sets go longer and the 3rd set arrives much more often. This is the mechanism I'm relying on here.
• The precedent goes in the same direction. The only time they crossed paths, in February on hard at Delray Beach, it took 23 games and a tiebreaker to separate them.

• There's also Fritz's profile. He holds serve like few others on the circuit, which means few breaks against him and sets that go the distance, in 6-4, 7-5 or a tiebreaker rather than 6-2.

• What bothers me, I'll give it: the American has dispatched 2 of his matches this week in 19 games, against Zizou Bergs then Kamil Majchrzak. If he catches Jodar early, this line falls quickly.

• But the 2 men are coming off a semifinal played less than a day ago, 27 games for one and 33 for the other. Heavy legs on both sides, that rarely makes for short matches.