Tennis Prediction Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo: US Open

US Open 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Fritz & under 35.5 games · 2 | 0.2u (Boost Winamax)

• On Thursday, Taylor Fritz swept Mattia Bellucci, 6-0 6-1 6-1. The same day, Francisco Cerundolo was trailing 2 sets to 1 against Jan-Lennard Struff, and had to go to a 5th set and 51 games to get through.

• Here, we're not betting on the winner, the market has already decided. We're betting on the manner. And the manner, in New York, Fritz knows it: 11 of his last 16 wins in this tournament have been 3-0.

• In Grand Slams this season, same thing: 9 wins, 6 without losing a set. And since the start of the fortnight, he's been serving steel: 25 aces for 2 double faults in 2 matches, 91% then 86% of points won behind his 1st serve.

• On the other hand, Cerundolo arrived in New York with 3 straight hard court losses, all in 2 sets. Arthur Gea in Los Cabos, Alex Michelsen in Montreal, Nuno Borges in Cincinnati. That was his summer on this surface, before Thursday's 5 sets.

• Beware though, the Argentine is a formidable player when he's the underdog, and Cerundolo won Queen's in June, beating Brandon Nakashima and Tommy Paul, he took out Daniil Medvedev in Miami, and in their only previous meeting, in Madrid in 2024, he took a set from Fritz.

• Fritz himself has dropped sets in Grand Slams this year against Valentin Royer, Stan Wawrinka and Lorenzo Sonego. A set can be lost in a tiebreaker.

• But none of those three arrived with five sets in their legs 2 days earlier, I see Fritz winning, and I see him winning quickly.