Tennis Prediction Joao Fonseca vs Casper Ruud: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• A 27-year-old player ranked 13th in the world is going as an underdog tonight against a 19-year-old player ranked 27th. At first glance, it's strange. But looking at the surfaces, it's no longer the case.

• Casper Ruud, this season, is 17-6 on clay. And 8-7 on hard courts. He's not the same player depending on the surface, and the ranking doesn't reflect this difference.

• Joao Fonseca, on the other hand, doesn't have this gap. His level on hard courts is the best of his year, and that's precisely where we're playing.

• The two have already crossed paths, at Roland-Garros at the end of May. The Brazilian won in four sets.

• And the location of this victory is as important as the victory itself. He beat him on clay, that is to say, in the exact place where Ruud is the strongest and where Fonseca himself is the least advantaged. This kind of precedent transfers very well.

• On Wednesday, Fonseca eliminated Stefanos Tsitsipas in two sets, with 8 aces and 80% of points won behind his 1st serve. He didn't need the third set.

• Now the counter-reading, and it's solid. The same Wednesday, Ruud swept Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6-1 6-2 in 15 games, while this same opponent had beaten him on clay three weeks earlier.

• In other words, his record on hard courts is a fact of the season, it's not a prophecy for tonight. He is perfectly capable of playing a very good match here.

• The other reservation, I also give it: the market has already made the move. Ruud was the favorite two days ago, he is no longer. We buy after the move, not before.

• But at this price, I'll take it again. A player who has already won this duel on the other's court, on the surface that suits him the most, is normally more expensive.

• Fonseca in three sets, with a close first set.