Tennis Prediction Arthur Fils vs Jannik Sinner: Madrid Semi-final

Complete Analysis

This is undoubtedly the must-see match of this Masters 1000 event, as we have the two best clay court players of the season so far facing off.

On one side, Arthur Fils, 4th in the Race, on a 9-0 winning streak on clay including a title in Barcelona and a constantly improving level of play. On the other, Jannik Sinner, seeking a historic 5th consecutive Masters 1000 title, recent winner in Monte-Carlo and still so dominant across the tour.

On paper, Sinner remains the favorite, no debate, but in this specific spot, I’m having a hard time seeing him steamroll Fils. Firstly, the Italian doesn’t seem to be at his absolute best this week, he dropped a set to Benjamin Bonzi, conceded breaks to Norrie and Elmer Moller. And most importantly, against Jodar, he left openings with 7 break points conceded and quite a few uncharacteristic errors.

Against Fils, that kind of lapse can prove very costly because on the other side, Arthur has never been this solid: his forehand is still as devastating, but most importantly he has made huge strides on the backhand side. His serve is much more reliable (thanks to the adjustments with Goran Ivanisevic), he’s getting more free points, he’s expending less energy and that’s crucial at this level.

The stats of the week also confirm the balance. The underlying numbers are very close and in these Madrid conditions, with the altitude, Fils’ serve can do even more damage and allow him to stay in touch. I expect a big battle, with sequences where each player will take control, Sinner will have his moments, but Fils will too.