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In brief:

Arthur Fils1.612.25u
  • I tend to trust Arthur Fils at 1.61 against Matteo Berrettini and honestly I'm having a hard time missing out on such odds.
  • I see real value in it, first of all because the level displayed by Arthur in the first round against Raphaël Collignon impressed me a lot.
  • For a first grass court match of the season, he showed a quite stunning ease.
  • He seemed extremely light in his movements, very explosive, powerful and above all very serene in the important moments.
  • His serve worked perfectly with over 83% of points won behind his first serve.
  • This is a particularly encouraging statistic before facing a player like Berrettini.
  • What I also like is his technical evolution: since the arrival of Goran Ivanisevic, Arthur has clearly improved his serve.
  • He gets more free points and his gesture seems much smoother.
  • But it's not the only change we've been able to observe, I also find his backhand much more stable than a few months ago.
  • He makes fewer mistakes on this diagonal and this allows him to build the points with much more serenity.
  • His forehand remains obviously his main weapon, but today it seems much more complete, much more stable as well, without necessarily committing 200% in each shot as he used to do.
  • And above all, he has been repeating it for several days: he feels 100% physically, he wants to go all the way and we can feel it immediately in his tennis.
  • On the other side, Matteo Berrettini remains an immense grass court player.
  • His past at Wimbledon commands respect (he had actually reached the final of the tournament in 2021) and his serve will always be a formidable weapon.
  • But today, he is no longer the same player at all.
  • Injuries have considerably slowed down his progress and he no longer gives the same impression of domination as a few seasons ago.
  • His first round against Stan Wawrinka was not entirely reassuring either.
  • He got through in four sets at the end of an extremely tight match that could very well have tipped the other way, it was clearly Russian roulette.
  • Putting on such a match against a 41-year-old Wawrinka does not seem to me to be a particularly positive signal.
  • I also find that his backhand remains a real weakness and his return quality no longer allows him to put as much pressure as before.
  • Physically on the court he seems slow, old, very heavy on his feet, I now consider him as a serve-bot, nothing more.
  • If Arthur maintains the serve level shown against Collignon, I think the Italian will have a hard time creating opportunities, and should struggle to return.
  • There is also a mental aspect that I really like, with the elimination
Our Pick
Arthur Fils
Arthur Fils
#23
Matteo Berrettini
Matteo Berrettini
#43
Tournament: Wimbledon Surface: Grass

Our Bet

Confidence Level

70%
Good Confidence

Bet Details

2.25u
ML Arthur Fils @ 1.61

Best Odds

1.61 Bwin

Expert Track Record

Bet-Analytix

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