Jaime Faria Over 1.5 Breaks Prediction: US Open

🇺🇸 #USOpen

• On August 16 in Cincinnati, Jaime Faria beat Ben Shelton 6-4 6-4. Two sets, and he managed to break the American's serve 2 times.

• And if Faria was able to do it against Shelton, then he will be able to do it against Carlos Alcaraz in the recovery phase.

• This year, the Portuguese breaks very often and very quickly: since May 1st, his matches contain at least 1.11 breaks per set.

• Van de Zandschulp, Basilashvili, Yibing Wu, Stan Wawrinka: at least two breaks each time, each time in two sets.

• On the other hand, Alcaraz has played only one match since April. One. He is coming back from tenosynovitis in the wrist that cost him the French Open, the grass and Wimbledon.

• He comes out of a 3-set victory against Safiullin, where he conceded 6 break points, and lost his serve once (and the Russian could have done much better).

• I expect to see the Portuguese aggressive and especially relaxed in this underdog position, which could offer us a messy match with multiple breaks.

• Finally, the EdgeLab 'breaks' matrix agrees with my analysis, and expects an average of 8.3 breaks in this duel, a story to follow.

YOU CAN FIND THE MATCH ANALYSIS FOR FREE ON

👉 https://edge-lab.io/fr/match/jaime-faria-vs-carlos-alcaraz-us-open-2026