Tennis Parlay Liudmila Samsonova + Naomi Osaka: Toronto

🇨🇦 Toronto

• Liudmila Samsonova will face Maya Osaka. The Australian has a problem that nothing compensates in this match: she doesn't serve well. It's the weakest serve I've seen this week, across all draws.

• On the other hand, the Russian serves hard and returns well. She has already faced Osaka, at Wimbledon last year, and she had settled the matter in 2 sets.

• What holds me back from getting carried away: Osaka has won her 3 matches here this week, including a 6-4 6-4 against Sorana Cirstea the day before yesterday. Her season record says one thing, her week here says another.

• Naomi Osaka next, against Elise Mertens. The Japanese's serve is the heaviest in this whole draw, and she won their last encounter in two straight sets, in June (6-3 6-3 on grass).

• On hard court, these two are perfectly even, 3 wins each. Mertens has won the last two on this surface, including one here in Toronto, in 2024.

• Moreover, she is coming off a serious season, with Elena Rybakina beaten at Wimbledon in early July. This is no warm-up for Osaka.

• What I'm playing here is mainly the serve ratio in the two matches, in reduced stakes, and nothing else: both in two sets, or not at all.