Tennis Prediction Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin: Montreal

🇨🇦 #Montreal

🇧🇪🇦🇺 **Over 10.5 games S1 Collignon Popyrin · 2.75 | 0.25u

• Raphael Collignon never plays short sets. During his week in Gstaad last month, out of 13 sets played, 8 reached 11 games or more: he beat Lorenzo Sonego 7-6 7-6, Valentin Vacherot in 3 sets including a tiebreaker and a 7-5, and he took a set off Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final. The altitude conditions helped, but the habit is there.

• Tonight, he enters the fray after 15 days without competition and without having played on hard courts for a while. The start of the match is exactly where it gets paid off: the time to adjust the sights, a few games go by.

• On the other hand, Alexei Popyrin has what it takes to take advantage of it. He fired 16 aces last night against Roman Burruchaga, and he had won 92% of his points behind the first serve on Saturday. As long as his arm follows, he doesn't give up his serve easily.

• Add to that the fact that he is at home here. It's on this court that he lifted the biggest title of his career two years ago, and he has 11 wins for 1 loss here since. This is not the kind of place where you get out in 30 minutes.

• The scenario that would cost me this ticket, I know it: an early break by the Belgian and a first set wrapped up 6-3. It's possible, it's even the shortest path for him.

• But I rather see a start where no one gives in, a Collignon who heats up as the games go by, and a set that will go for 11 or 12 games before tipping over. A tight first set, that seems largely underpriced here.