Tennis Prediction Francisco Cerundolo vs Nuno Borges: Cincinnati

🇺🇸 Cincinnati

• There is something unusual happening in this match: the world #25 is priced as the underdog against the world #47. This kind of reversal always has a reason, and here it has two. One good, and one bad.

• The good: form. Borges is coming off a strong fortnight, having chained wins in Montreal and won a 38-game battle against Kokkinakis on Friday.

• Cerundolo, on the other hand, hasn't played in ten days and his recent hard court outings haven't been reassuring. In the current snapshot, the Portuguese deserves his underdog status.

• The bad: level. In everything beyond this week's form, the Argentine is the better player, and his profile is a precise nightmare for Borges: one of the best returners on tour against a serviceable but not unbreakable serve.

• On Friday, even serving at 88% behind his first ball, the Portuguese couldn't close it out in 2 sets. Against an elite returner, those service games come at a cost.

• And those 38 games have a price. Playing again 48 hours after a match like that, against a fresh player who makes you defend every point, is the scenario where the legs give out in the third set.

• The risk of the ticket is clear: if the Argentine rust speaks first, the match slips away. But at this force ratio, taking the better player in the underdog role is the kind of reversal we play.