Tennis Prediction Alexander Bublik vs Tommy Paul: US Open

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• Since June 1st, Alexander Bublik has a record of 8 wins and 3 losses.

• On the other hand, Tommy Paul is at 7 wins and 4 losses.

• And in this tournament, the gap is even more clear: Bublik has dropped only one set in 2 rounds and he crushed Adrian Mannarino 6-3 6-1 6-1.

• Paul, on the other hand, has dropped a set to Coleman Wong and a set to Dino Prizmic, two players well below him.

• And the argument that is always brought up against Bublik, the inconsistency over the distance, does not hold this summer.

• Two 5-set matches at Wimbledon in July, two wins. Against Frances Tiafoe 4-6 7-6 7-6 4-6 6-3, with a tiebreaker at 13-11, and against Thanasi Kokkinakis 4-6 6-3 6-7 6-3 6-4. He was down a set both times but went the distance both times.

• So I have a hard time understanding why the American is given such a big favorite, because his record has flaws.

• Beaten in the first round in Washington by Kamil Majchrzak on July 28 and beaten 6-3 6-2 by Learner Tien in Montreal.

• 5-2 in the H2H in favor of Paul, but the last duel was won here by the Kazakh in 2025: 7-6 6-7 6-3 6-6 6-1.

• I more or less expect the same type of duel here, a long, contested match with breaks, but Bublik seems way too high at this price, especially when you look at his serving efficiency since the start of the week.

• The EdgeLab 'breaks' matrix expects 7.1 breaks in the match, so I'm also betting 0.65 units on over 6.5 breaks!

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