Tennis Prediction Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi: Estoril

Estoril 🇵🇹

• Alexander Blockx has played two matches at Estoril this week, both going to a third set with thirty-two games each time: that's where I'm starting from, and I see value on the over 22.5 games in his semi-final.

• On the other side, Luciano Darderi came back from hell last night against Jaime Faria: lost the first set 2-6, trailed 2-5 in the second, then won five straight games to turn the table.

• What I take away from this match is not the comeback, but the first hour and a half, where the Italian was overwhelmed by a player carried by his home crowd.

• And it's not coming out of nowhere. On Sunday, he played the final in Bastad, after a week of escaping from everywhere: thirteen set points to conclude a set against Vallejo, a 13-11 tiebreak loss in the same match. Since then, he's played on Thursday, Friday, and he's doing it again tonight.

• The best argument against me, let's give it right away: Darderi is by far the best clay courter left in this draw, his five titles have all been won on this surface, and it took him only sixty-two minutes to dispatch Pedro Martinez 6-0, 6-1 earlier this week.

• Except that Martinez was coming from the qualifiers, and the Belgian is a completely different opponent: he hits much harder, serves better, and has already proven here that he's not easily overwhelmed, notably saving two match points against Kyrian Jacquet.

• The serve also points towards the over: Blockx wins over 73% of his first serve points in the tournament, Darderi 71%, and the Italian saved yesterday eight of the eleven break points he faced with only 53% of first serves. Two players protecting their serve, those are games that add up one by one.

• Add that they've never crossed paths on the main tour: neither of them enters the court with a ready-made key, and these discoveries stretch out.

• A 21-year-old puncher playing his first semi-final without any pressure, a favorite who has given a lot in the last ten days: whether Darderi gets through like yesterday or the Belgian creates the upset, I see a match that is played set by set, with a third set at the end or two very tight sets.