Tennis Prediction Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano Navone: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• Matteo Berrettini and Mariano Navone have already faced each other 3 times, and the Italian has won all 3. The detail that matters: it was each time on clay, in Marrakech, Monte-Carlo and then Cagliari last April.

• In other words, he has settled this player 3 times on the surface that suits the Argentinian. They have never met on hard court.

• And hard court is precisely the gap in Navone's calendar. 6 wins for 5 losses this year, against 17-11 on clay, and especially none of his last 10 matches on this surface. He is coming from Kitzbühel, where he played on clay 10 days ago.

• If we look more closely at Navone's record on hard court, it's not very sexy: 19W for 33L, a win percentage of 37%, when Berrettini stands at 195W for 120L.

• I'm not going to pretend on the other side: Berrettini hasn't played since Wimbledon, 29 days ago, and he skipped July due to his hip. This is the real risk of the bet, and I'm not sweeping it under the rug.

• What I still remember, though, is the level he showed in London before stopping. He took out Arthur Fils, he beat Stan Wawrinka after 4 tie-breaks, and he pushed Grigor Dimitrov to the 5th set. This player was not diminished.

• On a fast court, his serve remains the heaviest weapon on both sides of the net, and Navone doesn't have the commitment to respond to it. I see him going through in 2 sets, or in 3 if the comeback costs him a start.

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