Tennis Prediction Zizou Bergs vs Ben Shelton: Montreal

🇨🇦 Montreal

• Ben Shelton is defending his title here and he hasn't lost a set in Montreal yet but still look at how he's been winning over the past 2 weeks.

• 3 sets against Martin Damm in Washington. 3 sets against Ugo Humbert the day after, with the first set lost in a tiebreaker. And a loss against Alejandro Tabilo to end his week.

• Then, to start the defense of his title, two sets against Jenson Brooksby, but a 7-5 in the second.

• It's not a drop in level, and I'm not going to sell you that. It's something else, and it's structural: the return is by far the weakest part of his game.

• A player who doesn't break can't pull away, even on nights when he dominates. He wins 7-5 and 6-4 instead of winning 6-2 and 6-3.

• On the other side, Zizou Bergs holds his serve properly and returns much better than most of the opponents Shelton has faced recently. It's precisely the profile that makes the sets last longer.

• His year also says something. In June, he beat Ugo Humbert twice in 2 days: in the Eastbourne final for his first title, then in the Wimbledon first round in 5 sets.

• And the day before yesterday here, he beat Sebastian Baez in 3 sets after losing the first.

• My reservation is frank, and it's the same as I wrote about him the day before yesterday. He has a 7-8 record on hard courts this season, it's his worst surface, and his tennis thrives mostly on grass.

• So I'm not betting on his win. I'm betting on the fact that he won't get blown away, and against that return, blowing someone away takes time.

• I see long sets and at least one tiebreaker.