Honestly, I have a hard time imagining Toby Samuel creating a surprise against Jakub Mensik. The Czech seems to represent a more complete and talented version of this player profile that relies heavily on his serve to quickly take the initiative.
Mensik has a more devastating forehand, a more solid backhand and above all, already significant experience of big events despite his young age. Certainly, Samuel will probably have his sequences, especially behind his commitment, but in a best-of-three format, I think Mensik’s quality will ultimately make the difference.
On the other hand, I really like the over 3.5 sets between Arthur Fils and Raphaël Collignon. Even if Fils remains the better player on paper, immediately regaining his best level in a first Grand Slam match is not obvious. Collignon continues to progress, he has shown very nice things on grass recently and has enough weapons to put Fils under pressure in sequences. I clearly see him capable of getting at least one set.
